Understanding Discipline

1Imagine flipping a coin.The probability of getting heads on a single flip is 0.5 or 50%.Now, if you keep flipping the coin, the chance of getting at least one heads increases.After about 10 flips, the probability of seeing at least one heads becomes:

P = 1 - (1 - 0.5)^{10} = 0.999

2That’s 99.9% - almost certain.You might even call it deterministic…but it’s still not.It’s just high probability, not guaranteed.Now picture two people flipping a coin.One might get heads on the first try.Another might not see heads until the 10th flip.But if both flip 10 times, there’s a 99.9% chance they’ll each get heads at least once.

3Here’s the problem:The second person might quit too early - after the first tail, or maybe after two.All they had to do was flip it a few more times.Ten, to be precise.The same principle applies to everything in life:

• 4Building a business
• 5Getting fit and healthy
• 6Finding love

7It’s all probabilistic.You just need a sufficient number of tries to get a result.But life is short.Sometimes, a single “try” can cost months or even years.And that’s why it’s smarter to stack the odds in your favor by sticking to well-established principles - instead of gambling on shortcuts.Now here’s what might surprise you:Your brain is probabilistic too.

8It doesn’t passively see the world - it infers it.Using Bayesian logic, your brain constantly interprets noisy and incomplete sensory data to build a likely version of reality.It runs on prediction and updating, not certainty.

9You’ve got roughly 86 billion neurons, each an independent processor.When you try something new, these neurons initially fire randomly and independently.But with repetition, certain ones start firing together.And when they fire together enough times, they wire together, like people �� - a process known as synaptic plasticity.This is how skills, habits, and memories form.

10So what is discipline?Discipline is the act of repeating something enough times for your brain to form a stable, reliable neural pathway.

11That’s it.Not motivation.Not willpower.Just probabilistic repetition.The absence of discipline is simply the absence of repetition.And without repetition, you never give probability the chance to work in your favour…